Nurmagomedov vs Hughes 2: PFL Title Fight Predictions
The stage is set for one of the most highly anticipated rematches in recent mixed martial arts history. This Friday, October 3, 2025, the Professional Fighters League (PFL) presents a clash for the lightweight title as Usman Nurmagomedov and Paul Hughes run it back at the Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai .
Their first encounter eight months ago was a fiercely contested battle that left fans and pundits divided. Now, with the inaugural PFL lightweight championship officially on the line, both fighters have a chance to settle the score once and for all . Can the undefeated Nurmagomedov maintain his dominance, or will Hughes orchestrate a stunning upset? Let’s dive into the big-fight predictions.
Fight Background: A Rivalry Reborn
The rivalry between Nurmagomedov and Hughes intensifies with their second meeting. In their first fight, Nurmagomedov edged Hughes on points in a closely fought battle that could have gone either way . The Russian fighter preserved his perfect professional record (19-0, 1 NC), but many observers felt Hughes had done enough to win .
Since that controversial decision, Hughes rebounded spectacularly. The Irishman earned his second shot at Nurmagomedov with a blistering 42-second knockout of Bruno Miranda this past May . Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov has been sitting idle, waiting for this rematch . This sets the stage for a compelling championship showdown where both men believe they have something to prove.
Expert Predictions and Picks
The combat sports world is deeply divided on the outcome of this PFL headliner. Here’s what the experts are saying:
Picking Paul Hughes
Many analysts believe Hughes has the tools to dethrone the champion. They point to his performance in the first fight as evidence that he can solve the Nurmagomedov puzzle.
Former two-weight boxing world champion Carl Frampton strongly backs Hughes. “I think Paul can win this one,” Frampton said. “I felt he did enough to win the first fight… Paul will be right up for this and should be the favourite because of what happened last time. I’m backing him to become Ireland’s latest world champion” .
PFL 2025 lightweight tournament-winner Alfie Davis agrees. “My prediction is that Hughes is going to get the job done this time,” Davis stated. “I feel he’s been more active than Nurmagomedov of late, and I feel he just wants it more. So I’m going to go with the underdog Paul Hughes by a decision victory” .
Other notable voices supporting Hughes include PFL middleweight champion Costello van Steenis, professional boxer Michael Conlan, and PFL 2025 flyweight tournament-winner Liz Carmouche .
Picking Usman Nurmagomedov
Despite the strong case for Hughes, many experts still favor the undefeated Nurmagomedov to prevail. They trust his championship pedigree and ability to adjust in rematches.
Two-weight boxing world champion Savannah Marshall expects a more decisive performance this time. “What an absolute cracker that first fight was,” Marshall noted. “I just think everything Paul Hughes had, Usman Nurmagomedov had an answer for. So for this second one, I’m going for the same result but I think it will be a lot more decisive than the first one” .
PFL analyst and former UFC welterweight Dan Hardy also leans toward the champion. “I’m kind of leaning towards a decision for Usman again,” Hardy said. “I feel he will have recalibrated, he knows what he’s up against now and it will take Paul to do something even better than last time to get him the win” .
Additional support for Nurmagomedov comes from PFL 2025 welterweight tournament-winner Thad Jean and PFL middleweight Dalton Rosta, who believes Nurmagomedov will secure a finish this time .
Table: Expert Prediction Summary
| Expert | Prediction | Method | Reasoning |
| Carl Frampton | Hughes | N/A | Felt Hughes won first fight, believes he will adjust |
| Alfie Davis | Hughes | Decision | Hughes more active and motivated |
| Savannah Marshall | Nurmagomedov | More decisive win | Believes Nurmagomedov has answers for Hughes’ tools |
| Dan Hardy | Nurmagomedov | Decision | Champion will recalibrate and adapt |
| Dalton Rosta | Nurmagomedov | Finish | Expects champion to use wrestling for submission |
Staff Picks From Major Outlets
The division of opinion extends to major MMA media outlets, highlighting how competitive this PFL title fight appears to be:
- MMA Junkie: Their staff picks closely favor Nurmagomedov, with 8 of 11 analysts selecting the champion to retain .
- MMASucka: This outlet slightly leans toward the challenger, with 2 of 3 staff members picking Hughes to win .
- MMA Fighting: The preview from this outlet emphasizes that Hughes pushed Nurmagomedov to his limits like never before, setting the stage for a compelling rematch .
What to Watch For in the Fight
This PFL championship bout presents several intriguing tactical elements that could determine the outcome:
First, watch how Hughes handles Nurmagomedov’s grappling. In their initial encounter, Hughes demonstrated effective anti-wrestling, successfully pushing Nurmagomedov into deep waters . If he can again neutralize the champion’s grappling advantage, he forces a stand-up battle where he has proven dangerous.
Second, observe Nurmagomedov’s adjustment to Hughes’ pressure. The champion knows he cannot underestimate Hughes again, as he may have done in their first meeting . Nurmagomedov will likely have a more refined gameplan to handle Hughes’ aggression.
Finally, consider the championship experience factor. Nurmagomedov has defended titles before and understands the pressure of big fights. Hughes has never held a major promotion belt, though he performed excellently in their first encounter despite this .
Conclusion
The Nurmagomedov vs Hughes rematch represents everything that makes the PFL must-watch MMA. With an inaugural lightweight title at stake and two elite fighters seeking to settle a score, this fight promises fireworks.
Will Usman Nurmagomedov cement his status as an undefeated champion, or will Paul Hughes complete his journey to the top by capturing PFL gold? Tune in to PFL Dubai on Friday, October 3rd, to witness this epic confrontation unfold.
Who do you think will win this highly anticipated PFL rematch? Share your predictions on social media using #NurmagomedovHughes2.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. Where can I watch Nurmagomedov vs Hughes 2?
You can watch the fight live through ESPN Unlimited. The PFL Dubai event takes place on Friday, October 3, 2025, from the Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai .
2. What happened in the first fight between Nurmagomedov and Hughes?
Usman Nurmagomedov defeated Paul Hughes by majority decision in a closely contested battle that many observers felt could have gone either way .
3. What is Usman Nurmagomedov’s professional record?
Usman Nurmagomedov brings an undefeated professional record of 19-0 (1 No Contest) into this rematch .
4. How did Paul Hughes earn this title rematch?
Hughes earned his second title shot by scoring a devastating 42-second knockout victory over Bruno Miranda at PFL Europe 1 in May 2025 .
5. What other titles are on the line at PFL Dubai?
The event also features a co-main event for the PFL light heavyweight championship between Corey Anderson and Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov.
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